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Competitive Authoritarianism in Turkey
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In the last decade, Turkey’s political system has been characterized by polarization, democratic backsliding, competitive authoritarianism, and populism. Although such drastic shifts can be attributable to the rising authoritarianism of AKP and Erdoğan, Turkey’s struggle to consolidate its democracy is a perpetual issue.
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Türkiye’de Seçim Anketlerinin Toplam Anket Hatası Perspektifinden Bir İncelemesi [An Examination of Election Polls in Turkey from the Total Survey Error Paradigm Perspective]
Published in Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2022
Election polls are not only essential to measure electorates’ political attitudes, preferences, and behavior but may also influence their formation. In this study, we evaluate election polls in Turkey, which have been increasingly popular and criticized by political actors in the last years, from a survey methodology perspective and investigate whether they follow internationally recognized standards. To this end, we collected a comprehensive dataset covering all election polls on eight elections between 2011 and 2019 published at traditional or social media outlets. Our assessment of a total of 295 election polls from the perspective of the “total survey error” approach and CNN’s transparency guidelines shows that, most election polls in Turkey do not follow scientific standards, especially in terms of representation, and are thus unsuccessful at predicting election outcomes. In the conclusion, we discuss how survey data from public opinion and election polls, and cross-national surveys can be employed in political science research.
Recommended citation: Aydaş, İrem, Mert Moral, and Yasemin Tosun. 2022. "Türkiye’de Seçim Anketlerinin Toplam Anket Hatası Perspektifinden Bir İncelemesi [An Examination of Election Polls in Turkey from the Total Survey Error Paradigm Perspective]." Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 51(1): 87-110.